By: Ubaidatu Moro Umar
As the world gears up for another pivotal election season, Global Info Analytics has released its comprehensive polling Report 2024. The report, a culmination of months of rigorous data collection and analysis, provides an in-depth look into voter preferences, key issues, and projected outcomes for the upcoming elections. This advanced report aims to break down the crucial findings and insights that will shape the political landscape in 2024.
Findings:
One of the most striking findings in the polling Report 2024 is the noticeable shift in party allegiance among voters. The data indicates a traditional party line, particularly among younger voters and urban populations.
This demographic is showing an increasing tendency to support Independent and Third-party Candidates, signalling a potential paradigm shift in the political arena.
The Methodology and approach that was in the 2023 polling report used according to the Executive Director of Global Info Analytics says: Sample size 5,881 voters were interviewed, Confidence level: 99% and Margin of Error of 1.60%, The Electoral Commission’s 2023 voters register was used as sample frame, 30 percent of constituencies from each region was randomly selected and allocated the regional quota based on total voters in each of the selected Constituencies.
The Presidential result is based on the ‘’likely voters’’ model. However, the regional and constituency polls are based on an all voter’s model which includes responses of voters who have indicated that they will note vote.
The National Presidential Poll is presented under a weighted and unweighted method using the 90-Days moving average of party affiliations in Ghana. The following 90-days moving average were used to adjust the unweighted polls:
The poll is cross-sectional and was carried out in 82 Constituencies in all the 16 regions.
The Demographic analysis of the results would have a higher margin of error. Field interviews were conducted between 22nd December to 31st December 2023.
The Analysis:
Global Info Analytics’ polling Report 2024 provides a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the upcoming elections. The report underscores the complexity of voter behaviour and the myriad factors that will influence the election outcomes. The data indicates a significant shift in voter preferences compared to previous years and a notable trend is the increased support for third-party candidates, suggesting a growing disillusionment with traditional two- party politics.
Younger voters (ages 18-34) are showing a marked preference for progressive policies, while older voters(ages 65 and above)tend to favor more conservative stances and the reports highlight regional disparities in voter preferences. Social media continues to play a significant role in shaping voter opinions, particularly amongst younger demographics. Traditional media outlets, while still influential, are less dominant than in previous election cycles and this underlies the importance of digital campaigns.
As Candidates gear up for the final stretch of their campaigns, the insights from this report will be valuable in shaping their strategies and outreach efforts.
1. Executive Summary
Overview of key findings
Methodology and data sources
2.National Polling Trends
Presidential race analysis
3. Regional and state-Level Insights
Congressional race highlights
Key ballot measures
4.Demographic Analysis
Age group preferences
5.Issue-Based Polling
Economy and Employment
Healthcare and Education
6.Voter Sentiment and Behaviour
Predictive models
7. Comparative Analysis
Comparison with previous Elections
8.Forecasting and Projections
Predictive Models
9. Appendices
Detailed Polling Data
The Publication:
This report by Global Info Analytics, also highlights regional dynamics and voter sentiments on various issues, reflecting a comprehensive picture of the current political landscape in Ghana.
