By Ephraim Ofori Numosuor, Financial Economist, Research and Policy Analyst.
As Ghana’s new government gears up to present its maiden budget on March 11, 2025, expectations are sky-high. Every first budget of a new administration is more than just a fiscal plan, it’s a statement of intent, a promise of change, and a roadmap to economic transformation. But history reminds us that while first budgets often come with ambitious pledges, their real test lies in execution.
Since the dawn of the Fourth Republic in 1993, every elected government has had to face the daunting task of crafting a first budget that reassures citizens, wins investor confidence, and lays the foundation for sustainable economic growth. From Rawlings’ stability-focused budget to Akufo-Addo’s Free SHS era, how have these maiden financial blueprints fared? And what lessons should Ghana take into the 2025 budget presentation?
- Rawlings’ 1993 Budget – Stability, Reforms & Economic Recovery
When President Jerry John Rawlings transitioned from military rule to democratic governance in 1993, Ghana’s economy was still recovering from years of turbulence. His first budget, read by Kwame Peprah, the finance minister, focused on macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, and privatization. Building on the Economic Recovery Programme (ERP) of the late 1980s, Rawlings sought to deepen liberalization, encourage foreign investment, and stabilize inflation.
The Impact of his budget
The economy saw some growth, and foreign direct investment increased, but privatization led to job losses. Inflation control was a challenge, and economic hardships persisted for many Ghanaians.
Sustainability
The reforms laid a foundation for future stability, but excessive borrowing remained a concern.
- Kufuor’s 2001 Budget – Debt Relief & The ‘Golden Age of Business’
Taking over from the NDC in 2001, President John Agyekum Kufuor inherited an economy plagued by high debt and inflation. His first budget, delivered by Yaw Osafo-Maafo, the minister of finance, focused on Ghana’s qualification for the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, tax reductions, and private sector development under the theme “The Golden Age of Business.”
Impact
HIPC relief helped reduce Ghana’s external debt burden, freeing up resources for social interventions like the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) and Capitation Grant for basic education. Business-friendly policies also stimulated growth.
Sustainability
Debt relief was a game changer, but dependence on donor support made long-term financial independence challenging.
- Mills’ 2009 Budget – Austerity & Social Spending
When President John Evans Atta Mills assumed office in 2009, Ghana was experiencing rapid growth but also rising fiscal deficits. His finance minister, Dr. Kwabena Duffuor, delivered a budget focused on macroeconomic stability and social welfare programs, under the theme “Sustaining Macroeconomic Stability and Accelerating Growth.”
Impact
Inflation was reduced, GDP growth remained steady, and policies like the Single Spine Salary Structure (SSSS) helped improve public sector wages. However, government spending increased, leading to concerns over fiscal discipline.
Sustainability
While social interventions were crucial, high wage bills and rising expenditure posed sustainability risks.
- Mahama’s 2013 Budget – Infrastructure & Economic Expansion
In 2013, President John Dramani Mahama came into office with the promise of “Shared Growth”. His finance minister, Seth Terkper, focused on infrastructure development, energy
expansion, and fiscal consolidation under the budget theme “Sustaining Confidence in the Future.”
Impact
Ghana saw massive infrastructure projects, including the Kwame Nkrumah Circle Interchange, major Hospitals and expansion of road networks. However, the country also faced a crippling energy crisis (dumsor), a growing debt stock, and an eventual IMF bailout in 2015.
Sustainability
The infrastructure push was commendable, but heavy borrowing and revenue shortfalls raised long-term sustainability concerns.
- Akufo-Addo’s 2017 Budget – Tax Cuts & ‘Ghana Beyond Aid’
When President Nana Addo Dankwah Akufo-Addo took office in 2017, his government’s first budget, presented by Ken Ofori-Atta, carried the theme “Sowing the Seeds for Growth and Jobs.” The budget abolished nuisance taxes, introduced Free SHS, launched Planting for Food and Jobs to boost agriculture and re-introduced nursing and teacher trainee allowance.
Impact
Business confidence improved with tax cuts, and Free SHS expanded access to education. However, the banking sector clean-up, while necessary, was costly, and debt accumulation became a pressing concern.
Sustainability
While policies like Free SHS were transformative, and allowances to teacher and nursing trainees were encouraging, their financing raised concerns about long-term fiscal stability.
Lessons for the 2025 Budget Presentation
As the new government prepares its first budget on March 11, 2025, history offers critical lessons, which are as follows;
- Managing Debt is Crucial – Almost every new government faced a debt challenge. Borrowing should be strategic and productive.
- Balancing Social Programs with Revenue Generation – Free SHS, NHIS, and other social programs have been impactful, but long-term financing must be considered.
- Economic Diversification Matters – Overreliance on cocoa, gold, and oil makes Ghana vulnerable to external shocks. Industrialization and digital transformation must be prioritized.
- Infrastructure Must Have a Clear Funding Plan – Big projects must not come at the expense of fiscal stability.
Looking Ahead: Will 2025 Be Any Different?
With Ghana’s economy facing challenges like debt pressure, inflation, and unemployment, the upcoming budget will be scrutinized more than ever. Will it be a budget of austerity or bold reforms? Will it strike a balance between fiscal discipline and social impact?
Ghanaians will be watching, businesses will be hoping, and the world will be paying attention. On March 11, 2025, history will once again be made.
Will this government’s first budget be a game changer or just another chapter in Ghana’s economic struggles? Only time will tell.
All the best to Ato Forson and the new Mahama Government.
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